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Air France Flight Disappearance - THEORY

listasmsd listasmsd at gmail.com
Thu Jun 4 01:16:05 BST 2009


Pret 
I do not blame any crew member of the crash, but is the rule that the air companies always tried to blame the crash on the pilot misjudgment or poor judgment, and so forth; that is what I meant. Nobody likes to blame a pilot but the human factor exists. 
Explanations like a meteorite, satellite debris or EMP are uncommon/odd theories but could happen with a very remote possibility. Until the planes recorder info is recover no one will know for sure what happened. I´m not the one to judge the cause but simplicity is needed for an explanation. Thus I used the term "common". 
I use planes often and sincerely I pray at take off and landing. The prayer will not save me from a crash but will make me easer the trip. Believe me, a prayer for the souls of the air France flight will be not wasted! 
Regards
Manuel Sotelo
Caracas D.C.
 
PS 
If I saw any of those commons events for sure I will be not writing the answer today.........
Cordially

>A faulty maintenance,  a leak in the fuel system + static= explosion, please see the web page
 a suicide attack to the pilot cabin, 9/11, please see the web page
an explosive bomb, TWA over Ireland ...I think, please see the web page
a air plane to plane crash see below
and an astray missile please see the web page  are other common explanations<

Common explanations?  When is the last time you saw any of these common events? 
answer See at:
http://www.air-accidents.com/work.asp?cat=70&com=8

13) STAT_USE press fork link

Used for statistical purpose.

      A.COL.
     Air Collision
     
      BRD
     Bird strike
     
      CDS
     Flight operated under code sharing agreement with other airline
     
      DEM
     Test/Demonstration flight
     
      FIR
     Accident occurred due to fire on board
     
      G.COL.
     Ground Collision
     
      HOS
     Hostile act; hijacking/sabotage/bomb/fighting etc.
     
      ICE
     Accident occurred due to ice accumulation
     
      OUT
     Accident occurred for fuel exhaustion
     
      PSY
     Crew with psyco/health disturbance
     
      STR
     Structural failure
     
      TANK
     Fuel tank incident
     
      TRA
     Training flight
     
      TUR
     Turbulence enroute
     
      WAK
     Wake turbulence / trailing vortex
     

an example of the last 2 planes collition
      DATE
     A/COLL.
     G/COLL.
     AIRCRAFT
     CARRIER
     AREA
     LOCATION
     FAT.O/B
     FAT.O/G
     INFO
     
      29/09/2006
     
      
     B737-800
     GOL
     SAM
     NR. PEIXOTO, BRASILE
     154
     0
     COLLISION WITH EXECUTIVE (NO CASUALTIES); LOSS OF EFFECTIVE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
     

from http://www.air-accidents.com/

airplanes crashes by date:  http://www.celebratetoday.com/airdis.html


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Lest we forget, air travel is still the safest mode of transportation available to mankind.  Case in point - just for the US, how many traffic deaths were there, and how many deaths due to plane crashes were there?  Yes, there was the pilot error in Buffalo, NY, but how many crashes on US roadways did we see due to "pilot" aka driver error?  Like drunk drivers, drivers talking on cell phones, etc, etc, etc.

Too bad we don't pay as much attention to the carnage on the world's roadways as we do to the deaths caused by airplane crashes.  Yes a sudden massive loss of live is very visible - but the effects are the same whether that loss of life happens all at once or over the course of 365 days..........

And while I am at it - we might never know what happened on the doomed Air France plane, and so all this speculation by all of our self-proclaimed experts and a token will get me mugged on a subway - and will cast unproved and therefore undeserved blame on pilots who might not deserve it.  How about we all look to cast blame and hold accountable all of the people who are responsible for all of those deaths on the worlds' roadways because they can't seem to stay sober when they have to drive?

Just my 2 cents.

Ron
-----Original Message-----
From: trauma-list-bounces at trauma.org [mailto:trauma-list-bounces at trauma.org] On Behalf Of Bjorn, Pret
Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 8:42 AM
To: Trauma-List [TRAUMA.ORG]
Subject: RE: Air France Flight Disappearance - THEORY

I'm guessing that nobody "forgot" to blame the suddenly dead and thus defenseless crew on zero evidence.

Some people just prefer to keep their speculations respectful and harmless.  Some would rather not speculate at all.  The truth will out; no sense or use in rushing it.

Pret

-----Original Message-----
From: trauma-list-bounces at trauma.org [mailto:trauma-list-bounces at trauma.org] On Behalf Of listasmsd
Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 7:04 AM
To: Trauma-List [TRAUMA.ORG]
Subject: Re: Air France Flight Disappearance - THEORY

Every one forgot the common cause of airplanes crashes: pilot error ... seek the Occams´razor. In very bad weather there is safe way out. At the end, like in most cases the pilots poor judgment will be the main reason of the plane lost.
I will always praise an anonymous Captain from A.A. that stopped the flight I was in because the gadget-meter for fuel was faulty (a 3 hours flight, fuel for 6 hours). We were ready for take off and the Captain said the reason in the plane´s loud speaker: ......the replacement sent by the company was broken also... even with the A.A. land people pressure he is not taken off......... It took me 14 hour to get to Miami
The companies pressure the air crew often over "minor" problems so the show will go on.
Regards
Manuel Sotelo
Caracas D.C.
PS A faulty maintenance,  a leak in the fuel system + static= explosion, a suicide attack to the pilot cabin, an explosive bomb, a air plane to plane crash and an astray missile are other common explanations

(Cross post from CCM-L)

Unfortunately, although there may be various variations (if they ever find the flight data recorder), the cause of this crash is likely to be pretty simple:  Airplanes and thunderstorms don't mix.
There is no airplane that is turbulence and ice proof at the levels thunderstorms achieve.
The tops of the storms were reported at or above the cruising altitude of the aircraft.
Airborne radar only shows what is in front of the aircraft so you can't look at the big picture in the Atlantic real time.
In the US, I can ask the weather folks (and ATC if they turn off the filters that remove weather from their radar scopes) for additional information.
I don't believe that option is available in the middle of the Atlantic.

If you have nowhere to go as you try to thread through storms that doesn't contain a cell, you lose.
The space you came through may now contain another storm, so you can't even turn back.  Generally, turning back is a bad idea once you are in the turbulence because of the greater forces on the aircraft in a turn..

I flew (on instruments) through a cold front once in a Cessna 182.  Normally I would never do so, but we were looking for two missing students who had flown back to their base from a trip and never got there.
Their Emergency Locator beacon (ELT) had been heard.
We were the only aircraft/crew able to do ELT search in instrument conditions that could be there in a prompt time frame and we had no idea if they were alive.
Survival drops > 75% (some say 90%) after 24 hours.
After talking with Flight Service meteorologist and the ATC controller for the area, we decided we could make the flight with an acceptable level of safety.
For about a minute, I couldn't maintain the aircraft altitude within 1000' (i.e. we were pushed up and down by turbulence > 3000' total),  Usual tolerance is +/- 100'.
That was a cold front, not a thunderstorm, with the penetration selected based on expert guidance, real time. Admittedly, a tiny airplane compared to an airliner.
It is amazing what ATC will do when you have "Rescue" on the front of your call sign.
(We found them on the side of a mountain, night and still on instruments.  Ground team went in, no survivors.)

Lorick


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