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Wed Jun 3 12:03:37 BST 2009

Every one forgot the common cause of airplanes crashes: pilot error ... seek the Occams´razor. In very bad weather there is safe way out. At the end, like in most cases the pilots poor judgment will be the main reason of the plane lost. 
I will always praise an anonymous Captain from A.A. that stopped the flight I was in because the gadget-meter for fuel was faulty (a 3 hours flight, fuel for 6 hours). We were ready for take off and the Captain said the reason in the plane´s loud speaker: ......the replacement sent by the company was broken also... even with the A.A. land people pressure he is not taken off......... It took me 14 hour to get to Miami
The companies pressure the air crew often over "minor" problems so the show will go on.    
Regards
Manuel Sotelo
Caracas D.C.
PS A faulty maintenance,  a leak in the fuel system + static= explosion, a suicide attack to the pilot cabin, an explosive bomb, a air plane to plane crash and an astray missile are other common explanations

(Cross post from CCM-L)

Unfortunately, although there may be various variations (if they ever find the flight data recorder), the cause of this crash is likely to be pretty simple:  Airplanes and thunderstorms don't mix.
There is no airplane that is turbulence and ice proof at the levels thunderstorms achieve.
The tops of the storms were reported at or above the cruising altitude of the aircraft. 
Airborne radar only shows what is in front of the aircraft so you can't look at the big picture in the Atlantic real time.
In the US, I can ask the weather folks (and ATC if they turn off the filters that remove weather from their radar scopes) for additional information.
I don't believe that option is available in the middle of the Atlantic.

If you have nowhere to go as you try to thread through storms that doesn't contain a cell, you lose.
The space you came through may now contain another storm, so you can't even turn back.  Generally, turning back is a bad idea once you are in the turbulence because of the greater forces on the aircraft in a turn.. 

I flew (on instruments) through a cold front once in a Cessna 182.  Normally I would never do so, but we were looking for two missing students who had flown back to their base from a trip and never got there. 
Their Emergency Locator beacon (ELT) had been heard.
We were the only aircraft/crew able to do ELT search in instrument conditions that could be there in a prompt time frame and we had no idea if they were alive.
Survival drops > 75% (some say 90%) after 24 hours.
After talking with Flight Service meteorologist and the ATC controller for the area, we decided we could make the flight with an acceptable level of safety.
For about a minute, I couldn't maintain the aircraft altitude within 1000' (i.e. we were pushed up and down by turbulence > 3000' total),  Usual tolerance is +/- 100'. 
That was a cold front, not a thunderstorm, with the penetration selected based on expert guidance, real time. Admittedly, a tiny airplane compared to an airliner.
It is amazing what ATC will do when you have "Rescue" on the front of your call sign.
(We found them on the side of a mountain, night and still on instruments.  Ground team went in, no survivors.) 

Lorick 

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