Dr Mattox's predictions

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Well, I'm not a betting man; and this is not 100% relevant to the list, but
I guess it's the season for messing about a bit so (leaving aside issues
that are relevant mainly to the US) if we were running a sweepstake... 

> 
> 1. Three more drugs to control mediator storm will 
> be approved by the FDA

And within another 2 years will be shown to be ineffective in effectiveness
studies. This will not reduce their use.

> 
> 2. The United States will find itself "on the 
> ground" on three fronts:
> Iraq, North Korea, and Afghanistan. It will continue to 
> have presence in
> many other countries of the world

I'd bet against significant overt ground force involvement in North Korea
myself.

> 
> 3. Despite the widespread emphasis on vaccinia 
> vaccinations, no cases of
> traditional small pox will be reported. Some outbreaks 
> of vaccinia vaccination resistant, small pox like chimera diseases will 
> be reported.

Yes

> 5. Nursing schools will increase enrollment by 50% 
> to increase nurses in the pipeline

50% actual increase in one year seems a bit optimistic

> 
> 6. Several central American countries will export 
> bilingual nurses to the
> United States in order to assist in the nursing shortage.

Also South and East Asian and Pacific nations. BTW, Pret's comments on also
bilingual Canadians and being handed over to a government that
constitutionally espouse torture: is this the US or Canadian government you
mean?


> 
> 9. Palestine will have a new political leader
>

I'd stick my neck out and say this won't happen in 2003 (at least in the
sense of a leader generally recognised by the Palestinian people).
 
> 
> 12. HIV infections will be reported to exist in >50% of 
> the inhabitants of
> sub-Saharan Africa
> 

Too pessimistic.

> 13. Iatrogenic injury and health problems will increase 
> both from systems,
> nurses, physicians, and allied health personnel, with >80% of 
> these sentinel
> events occurring during times of "handoff."
> 
> 14. Numerous trauma centers will either close or be on 
> regular diversion or driveby
> 

Too easy. Bound to happen. Could run a sweepstake on the exact number,
though.

> 15. A new field of "surgical-hospitalist" who do 
> procedures on the floor, do
> not operate, punch a clock, work at night, and have surgical 
> training will be announced.

I think this needs clarification. Personally I'm not sure what you mean. Is
this, as suggested elsewhere, a paramedical 'Surgeons assistant'; is it a MD
with an understanding of surgery but less training in actual operating
skills than a surgeon providing pre- and post- op care; or is it something
else entirely?

Matt Dunn
Warwick



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